www.byzcath.org Forums News & Events Church News Maronite patriarch asks prayers for Lebanon

If both Syria and Iran join the fray, the U.S. Mediterranean Fleet will surely be ordered to stand by.

Israel may not be strong enough to face off Hamas, Hezbollah, and the combined armies of Syria and Iran at the same time. Unless, Israel decides a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Iran! (Everybody knows that Israel has the dirty bomb!)

Iran is the x-factor here and the U.S. has some axe to grind dating back to the downfall of the Shah.

I hope I am wrong!

Amado

It is shaping up just as I had guessed.

Zenocia � I think we do agree overall (maybe just not on some small details).

But I do say that neither Syria or Iran will openly come to the aide of Hezbollah. They will mouth the words but do nothing concrete.

Now here is how the chess board is layed out right now.

- Israel has closed Lebanon off � from Hezbollah being re-supplied by either Syria or Iran.

- The Lebanese government will not adie Hezbollah either )otherwise it would turn from a war of Israel vrs Hezbollah to - Israel vrs Lebanon. Lebanon does n ot want that and does not have the resourses for such a thing.

THE GOAL: Israel's goal is to crush Hezbollah (crush it down � as it can't be totally eradicated)... and get Hezbollah out of the southern boarder regions.

Now (thinking out loud)�

If UN troops do come to the boarder (they will probably be Russian - certainty not US or US allies) that will take weeks to accomplish - in which time Israel will continue its work on breaking Hezbollah. So Israel might consent (and would do good to consent) to UN forces (knowing that this acceptance will pacify the international community but also allow them � weeks � to continue pounding Hezbollah to mince meat.

With the appearance new long range rockets - one of Israel�s main goals will not be to find them all and blow them all up. I can not tell if Israel knew about these before hand or not. I think they were a surprise to Israel.

No one - not one country - wants to go to war to protect Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been supported by Iran and Syria (as a thorn in the side of Israel and US) ... but ... That day is over. Hezbollah is a wild card and very uncontrollable. It has become too � too popular. They (Iran and Syria) are also very cautious with this wild card because they know that Hezbollah would take over either (Syria or Iran) if given the opportunity. Neither Iran nor Syria wants to end up like � Lebanon.

You befriend a gangster to do dirty work for you - but you do not invite the gangster to come live at you house.

So all in all � Israel has really done one very smart move. Israel have played this all � to perfection.

Now think about this next thing�

I had guessed that Israel wanted Lebanese troop to replace Hezbollah on the southern boarder�. But given the option of Russian troops (Putin wants into the WTO and so this favor will help that) � given the option .. Russian troops would be preferred.

Why?

Because while Russia has many ties with Muslin counties (Iraq / Sysria / Iran ) which makes Russia acceptable � they also (Russia) have no like for radical Islamist! Russia would also like to keep North Korea out of the area� (missiles supplied by Iran and North Korea) so that would dry up the missile supply to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has its own mind and is very difficult to control� in the eyes of Syria it has become too popular so as to be a threat to even Assad�s authority. Iran is the only one who is not threatened by Hezbollah�s popularity � but .. Iran would not cross swords with Russia (Iranians are really of Cossack decent and not Arabs at all). For the Ayatollah to cross swords with Russia would really drive the wedge between Iran�s leaders and common people.

This is all my guess on things.

I really take no sides except a general liking for Judeo-Christian culture.

I just observe.

I have enough trouble getting myself - �back to the garden� (Ref: Crosby Stills and Nash� �Wooden Ships�).


Zenovia� this is a very accurate picture (you gave).

The whole thing in the Mid East reminds me of that internal struggle deep inside ourselves. An internal struggle that only God can figure out how to fix - and he will do that only after our death. Very symbolic if you ask me. Jerusalem is indeed symbolic of the very heart of the world (at least for all Chritians and all Muslims and all Jews) and it is always in such chaos and turmoil. Does that not reflect indeed what is deep within us all??

BTW - did anyone notice that the Arab League came out and said �Hezbollah is being stupid - Hezbollah is - on its own.� (paraphrased).

If Iran backed up Hezbollah this would put an unwanted wedge between Iran and the rest of the Muslim world. Iran does not want that. It wants to be seen as the leader of the Muslim world.

(just a muse)

So to predict things� I would say that UN troops (maybe Russian) DO move into the Southern boarder.
Hezbollah will be cut back to a manageable size and reined in.

I thin it has to be remembered that � Hezbollah, Hamas, Palastinians, Bin Laden, etc� these are all useful to the Arab empire as proxies� to do the dirty work� but no Arab regime wants them to out of control. No Arab country wants them �here�. One might do business with a murderer but one does not invite him to live in your house.

-ray

Dear Amadeus and Zenovia�

while I have my half-baked opinions... I am listening to you both very intently. I am very interested in your views as you both seem to be well learned in these chess games. What you both have presented as possible �chess moves� � are very valid and very possible.

I do hope Iran does not - surprise me. And I hope Russia sees its own benefit to get back into the Mid East as a player. Does anyone remember how Russia got tossed out after the 67 war?

-ray

This thread has gotten political.

Should there be a new political forum apart from town hall?

Dear Ray you said:

I say:

I can't help but feel that one of the reasons that the Sunni Arab world, (such as Saudi Arabia), is not supporting Hezbollah is because of the continuous friction between Sunni's and Shiite's in Iraq. Now that's my opinion. I did hear though, that the leaders of the Arab countries are afraid of the Arab street and hope the conflict will end quickly. Their press is very irresponsible...(and we think CNN and the NY Times is bad) :rolleyes:

My grandson, that is highly interested in foreign affairs...and had a wealthy Saudi friend in college, said that if the U.S. were to let the Arabs go at it with the Iranians, they would massacre them. Remember the Iraq/Iran war? So I guess Israel is not their only enemy...but only as far as the saying goes; 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend'.

Zenovia

Dr. Eric,

I know, we always end up in politics when we should be praying. So I offer my prayers for the poor people of Lebanon, who (as usual), are taking the brunt of a war they do not deserve.

Zenovia

To your prayers I would add:

I offer my prayers for the poor people of Israel, who (as usual), are taking the brunt of a war they do not deserve.


~Isaac

Maybe there should be a political forum. I have no problems with politics. Especially since my whole life was filled with stories about how bad Regan was. (And I got a Ronald Regan award from the NRCC :p I almost dedicated it to my dad. )

Since so many people want to talk politics, national and global, why not create a political forum?

Through the intercession of Sts. Maron, Charbel, and Rafqa may peace soon come to Lebanon!

A few thoughts.

I believe what is happening is a coordinated effort among Hezbollah and Hamas; largely fought as a proxy war and at the behest, supply and financing of Syria and more importantly Iran. The violence in both Gaza and Lebanon started with the same tactic, incursion in to Israel and capture of Israeli soldiers. Iran and Syria both have their own reasons to seek the destruction of Israel. Both could care less if Lebanon was destroyed in the process (same for Hezbollah as is cleary shown). I believe Iran has the additional motivation of seeking to divert attention from the controversey surrounding its nuclear program. Nobody is really paying attention to that right now.

I'm not an Israeli flag waver, but I think they really have no choice but to strike hard right now. They made two attempts to trade land for peace, in both Gaza and Southern Lebanon. Both attempts are obvious failures and have exploded in their face, which means the Israeli doves will most likely not be seen for a long, long time. I do believe Israel was truly surprised both by the range of the Iranian supplied missiles in use by Hezbollah, and by the laxity of their own reserves who were able to be captured on two occassions. I think both were actually deeply shocking to them. They are not going to hold back now, that's for sure.

I don't think this will turn in to a wider regional war. Syria and Iran have too much to lose. Iran in particular, who may fear if their hand is shown it may become a pretext to destroy their nuclear capability.

As always, the civilians will suffer.

Andrew

Dear Isaac you said:

I say:

The reason I feel for Lebanon is because Israel is a very powerful nation. She has all the ability to completely destroy her enemies, (thanks to us), but she can't use that power on her enemies, and is attacking Lebanon. You know it was predominantly a Christian country before the present troubles. I find it so unfair.

Lebanon was not able to rid herself of Hezbollah, and had her army tried to do so, the Muslims within it would have mutineed, and she would have ended with another civil war. D--- those Syrians. Shouldn't they be the one's attacked?

I don't blame Israel for fighting Hezbollah, but destroying the Lebanese infastructure is another thing. But then again, it was done in Gaza too. Why are they doing that? Is it an eye for an eye? What help would destroying a countries infastructure do? Actually, the Palestinians were ready to get rid of their Hamas government when all this occurred. Now Israel is the hated one again.

...And peace was so so close!

Zenovia

Very interesting thoughts you have there.

I had thought today "Iran is not going to let Hzbollah fire Iranian rockets all by themselves. There MUST be Iraianian crews maning the controls."

-ray

Excellent.

Now why can not the nightly news tell us this stuff instead of the make-believe stuff they hand us??

-ray

This political chat will not last long. There really is no joy in it. And I think everyone nailed it pretty well (small details may vary).

-ray

Where was the Soviet Union tossed out from after the 1967 war?

Yes there is a lot of guessing being passed off as fact here.

No thought on how Hezbollah was able to get and keep the support of the Shia in Lebanon. Could this have been avoided?

Lebanon IS under attack. That is silly to say it is not.

I actually don't watch the nightly news. Generally I read the Wall Street Journal as my primary source of news, but I will also look at the BBC, the New York Times and the stories that come through the Associated Press through generic news outlets like Yahoo.

In this instance I have to say I have found the coverage to be fairly good. It generally seems to be understood that what is going on is in large part Iran flexing its muscles, attempting to broaden its role in the region and most importantly perhaps the diversion from its nuclear activities. Clearly they are banking on being able to do this through Hezbollah and at Lebanon's expense.

Andrew